Economy in cardboard boxes

The significant decline in demand for cardboard boxes in the two major economies of China and the United States indicates that the global economy is currently in an exceptionally exhausted stage.

Wen/Ba Jiuling (WeChat official account: Wu Xiaobo channel)

There is a product

It's unremarkable

But in various industries

Various stages of commodity circulation

But almost never absent

Its production and price fluctuations

It has also become a secret indicator for measuring economic conditions

Currently at "6.18"

If you love to buy, buy, buy

I must have had a lot of interaction with it

It is

Cardboard box

Almost all products are produced after

Cardboard boxes are commonly used for packaging

There are six industries with the highest usage of cardboard boxes

They are electronic products, beverages, and food

Daily chemical, logistics, and home appliances

They almost constitute the main body of the mass consumer market

Is the demand for cardboard boxes strong or not

Revealing the real picture of what is happening in these industries

And compared to macroeconomic data such as CPI and GDP

Prices of cardboard boxes and upstream raw materials

It reflects the economic situation

A more proactive and focused signal

It can be said to be the 'Spring River Warm Water Duck Prophet'

From 2018 to 2021

The main materials used for manufacturing cardboard boxes in China

Production and sales volume of cardboard and corrugated paper

Both continue to grow

The average annual growth rates of production volume are 9.35% and 8.45%, respectively

The average annual growth rate of consumption has reached 10%

2021

The consumption of these two main types of packaging paper in China

Over 31 million tons and 29 million tons respectively

The output of corrugated cardboard box industry reached 34.44 million tons

Year on year growth of 8.62%

The growth momentum abruptly came to an end in 2022

Under the epidemic situation

Double impact of supply and demand

Causing a large number of factories to shut down

Cardboard box backlog

Carton and paper prices fluctuate downward

Many paper mills voluntarily shut down for maintenance

Reduce construction

However, the downward trend seems to have not stopped yet

2022

The prices of cardboard and corrugated paper nationwide have dropped by 10% -20%

The production of corrugated cardboard boxes in the industry decreased by 4.45% year-on-year

As of early June this year

The ex factory price of 140g specification corrugated paper has dropped to about 3400 yuan per ton

It has decreased by 11% compared to the beginning of the year

This indirectly reflects the sluggish sales of various consumer goods

The severity of the economic situation is evident from this

A similar scene also occurred in the United States across the ocean

Q4 2022

The shipment volume of cardboard boxes in the United States decreased by 8.4% year-on-year

The operating rate of cardboard box manufacturers has dropped to 80.9%

Both data are the lowest since 2009

The 21 largest pulp and paper companies in North America

The profit margin in the first quarter of this year decreased by 5.8% year-on-year

Total revenue decreased by about 60% year-on-year

Some analysts believe that

The United States is currently experiencing a 'cardboard box recession'

During a typical recession period

All economic sectors

For example, manufacturing, service, construction, and foreign trade industries

Often, atrophy occurs simultaneously

From the perspective of current economic indicators in the United States

Only the manufacturing and foreign trade industries have shown significant shrinkage

These two industries are particularly closely related to cardboard boxes

As a result, it has led to a decrease in demand for cardboard boxes

Behind this current situation

It is in the context of high inflation and interest rates in the United States

Reduced consumption and lack of confidence

Someone pointed out that

Cardboard box decline

It appeared before several economic recessions in the United States

This may also be a harbinger of a new round of recession

It is still unknown whether the fact is true or not

But from the two largest economies in the world, China and the United States

The decrease in demand for cardboard boxes can be seen

Currently, the global economy

Indeed, I am in an exceptionally exhausted stage

What should I do?

Only by returning to the largest consumption pools

To stir up and stimulate people's needs

Perhaps we need to stimulate the real estate market

Perhaps relying on consumer subsidies

May need to rely on tax reductions or exemptions

Maybe

There are many controversies

The fog is heavy

But one thing is certain

When demand is insufficient

Consumers suffer from anorexia

No matter how big the industrial innovation is, it's just a mirage

Small cardboard boxes have sounded the alarm for us one by one

this moment

Indeed, it is a critical period for policy adjustment

Author | Bi Ran | Illustrations | Bi Ran

Duty Editor | He Mengfei | Editor in Chief | He Mengfei